Essay: The Arab Uprisings and Self-Determination - The Missed Opportunity

This essay was written in August 2013 and was published in German in Novo Argumente. I am publishing it in English for the first time here. 

As I write these words, a bloody massacre is being committed by the Egyptian police and army as they attempt to clear out two Muslim Brotherhood encampments set up to protest the military coup that removed President Mohamed Morsi from power on the 3rd of July. Amid the violence that claimed hundreds of lives, the authorities declared the return of the dreaded State of Emergency, a reminder of Egypt’s decades-long dictatorship which came to end when Hosni Mubarak was deposed on the 11th of February 2011. The combination of the violent repression and the reinstatement of the State of Emergency have effectively ended Egypt’s short-lived democracy, at least for now.

Syria: A Human Flood from the Baath State

Read my latest piece for Syria Deeply A Human Flood from the Baath State about the rural/urban divide in Syria and its impact on the uprising. Below you can watch in full Omar Amiralay's excellent film A Flood in Baath Country which I discuss in the article. 

"In 2003’s “A Flood in Baath Country,” Amiralay developed this theme as a metaphor for the Baathist ‘deep state’, as he revisited the Euphrates dam which featured in his early work. Four decades into its existence, the party and its leaders had clearly formed no real allegiances in Syria’s inland regions. Despite its omnipresence, it remained a remote and detached entity as reflected in the repetitive slogans the people used throughout the film to talk about it." Excerpt from the article.

The real lesson of Iraq: there are no good interventions.

Fate decided that the 10th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, regarded widely as an occasion to reflect on the lessons of that catastrophic adventure, would occur against the backdrop of the on-going debate over intervention in Syria. For interventionists this represents an opportunity to re-establish a distinction between good interventions and bad interventions. Their aim is clear: to salvage the doctrine of humanitarian interventionism and dissociate it from the bitter legacy of Iraq’s invasion. This is nothing short of a wilful attempt NOT to learn the lessons of Iraq.

Well-informed Misreading: A History of Syria with Dan Snow

‘Syria has been at the heart of human civilisation for thousands of years. The violence now raging across the country often seems random and inexplicable but it isn’t. If you want to understand what’s happening in Syria and this region at the moment there’s only one place to start, and that’s in the past. Those fighting for control of Syria nurse grievances stretching back centuries.’

I watched Dan Snow’s documentary ‘A History of Syria’ (BBC Two, 11 March), in which he tried to explain the historic roots of the on-going conflict there. Snow had clearly delved deep into Syrian history and tried to understand the dynamics of what’s happening today, travelling to various parts of Syria and talking to both pro and anti-regime Syrians. Unfortunately, his conclusions were distorted by his overreliance on historic precedents and the extent to which past grievances are dictating what’s happening today.

Tribes With Flags - Is the Arab State Really Dead?

Aaron David Miller stirred up quite a hornet’s nest with his recent article in FP ‘Tribes With Flags’, in which he questions the ‘myth of Arab statehood’. Some of the angry responses to Miller’s article were more outraged by the provocative title, with its insinuations of camel-riding bandits, than with the substance of his argument. I’m personally not worked up about the title, it’s a metaphor he’s using as a figurative extension of his argument. The real problem is his shoddy and complacent reasoning.

The Policy Delusion in Syria: The Myth of Constructive Meddling

So we know by now that Obama won’t intervene militarily in Syria, nor will he approve the arming of Syrian rebels. He clearly overrode the recommendation of many in his administration who had gone to the extent of devising plans to help the Syrian rebels tip the balance against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Obama’s reluctance stems from the apprehension about the rise of Jihadis within Syria, particularly of outfits like Jabhat al-Nusra that have a history of insurgency in Iraq and connections to al-Qaeda.

Israel’s post-modern air strike on Syria, adventurism and pre-emptive interventions

Israel’s mysterious air strike on Syria yesterday puts into focus the shift in the Jewish state’s strategic approach in recent years. There’s a noticeable shift from its former adventurism towards a pre-emptive paradigm often described as ‘surgical’. Both approaches were driven primarily by Israel’s security considerations, but they differ significantly in terms of Israel’s appetite for major geo-strategic restructuring projects. Far from being driven by principles, this transformation is pragmatic and it illustrates the changing mind-set within the Israeli establishment. 

Unfinished Revolution: Discussion on Egypt (Video)

Video of the Cross Talk discussion with myself, Wael Eskandar and Ariel Ratner.

"Egypt's revolution is in crisis. Will it lead to revolution 2.0? The current political establishment has barely had enough time to govern – does this mean the country is at a dead-end? Does the opposition only want to see the current powers fail? Could it do a better job?"

Egypt's National Salvation Front: The Sultan's Slackers

Read my comment piece on Now News about Egypt's ineffective opposition.

Video: Whatever Happened To The Arab Spring?

Video of a panel discussion at the Battle of Ideas 2012 at the Barbican Centre in London with Rania Hafez, Mark Seddon, myself, and Nadim Shehadi, chaired by Tara McCormack. I outline my assessment of the Arab Uprisings and make the argument against intervention and for self-determination. Watch up for the comical ending.

Interview with The Guardian on the Situation in Syria

I was interviewed by The Guardian about the situation in Syria, the role of the SNC and other opposition groups, and the general prospects of the Syrian uprising. Read an excerpt here or listen to the audio version here.

On Middle East Expertise: The Decline of Narrative

Since the beginning of the Arab uprisings I must have read hundreds of analytical and opinion pieces about the dynamics of the revolts and the role that external powers are playing. The one thing that stands out clearly to me after nearly two years is the total lack of a principled approach among the multitude of analysts and experts writing about the region. While it’s clear that many are now sceptical about the notion of expertise itself, I myself still believe in the role that specialised analysts can play based on extensive study of the historic literature and thorough observation of current developments.

Such a cold analytical approach seems to be at odds with the visceral emotive form of discourse that revolutions produce, but also with the humanitarian prism through which we now almost exclusively see events in other parts of the world. It’s probably that context that is responsible for both the proliferation and impotence of expertise. We are approaching a point at which independent detached observation is becoming obsolete, despite the fact that it is urgently needed.

Radio Discussion: Can Syria's fragmented opposition come together

Listen to a radio discussion about the future of the Syrian uprising that I participated in on The Voice of Russia, with VOR's Brendan Cole, Alan Mendoza, founder and executive director of the Henry Jackson Society; Vyacheslav Matuzov, former Russian diplomat and chairman of the Russian-Friendship Society with Arab Countries; and Dr Omar Ashour, director at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter

"Syria's descent into darkness" and anti-imperialist angst

As a non-interventionist, I should in theory agree with Seumas Milne about Syria. But his latest piece for The Guardian shows that, like many anti-imperialists, his position is both confused and contradictory. It might be the case that he is using Syria merely as a tool to criticise Western governments but in the process losing sight of what the uprising is about.

The piece is sensationally titled:  'Intervention is now driving Syria's descent into darkness'. The subtitle sums up Milne's argument: 'Western and Gulf regime support for rebel fighters isn't bringing freedom to Syrians but escalating sectarian conflict and war'. I am not a fan of the persistent Western and regional meddling in Syria which seems to lack a clear sense of purpose, but suggesting that support for rebel fighters is what is escalating war in Syria is myopic to say the least. Milne conveniently ignores the Syrian regime's responsibility for the conflict in the first place. 

Radio discussion with Ahdaf Soueif: Influence of the Arab Uprisings on new writing

Listen to the radio programme I participated in with Ahdaf Soueif and chaired by Edward Stourton on the influence of the Arab Uprisings on new writing. Below are the links to the two texts I read extracts from:

'One Year of Hope' by Amal Hanano

'Falling Apart' by Maysaloon

How Syria is spiralling out of control

Read my column in Al-Akhbar: Hollow Responses to Houla Massacre

Syria’s Parliamentary Elections: The Specter of Division

Read my opinion piece in Al-Akhbar: Syria’s Parliamentary Elections: The Specter of Division

The Muslim Brotherhood's Presidential Marginalisation is a Blow for Egyptian Democracy

Read my opinion column in Al-Akhbar: The Muslim Brotherhood's Presidential Marginalisation is a Blow for Egyptian Democracy

Dreamers not victims: Syrian refugee children show drawings of their dream homes

It is rarely that my twin interests, Arab politics and architecture, intersect. This set of photographs published by The Globe and Mail Photos: Syrian refugee children show drawings of their dream homes is simultaneously heartbreaking and uplifting. The 'dream home' is a handy instigator for imagining an alternative future and regaining the stability lost by refugees. It's a genuinely touching series of photographs made even more poignant by the revolutionary slogans. All credit to the photographer who came up with the idea, for once we are presented with refugees as dreamers not victims. 

On sectarianism as destiny: How to misread Syria

There’s a palpable sense that the situation in Syria is increasingly being debated in anthropological terms. The telling clue is the word ‘mosaic’. As in ‘a mosaic of different sects and ethnic groups.’ When all other analytical tools fail, a convenient tactic among Middle East experts is to revive the sectarian prototype, apparently the key to understanding political dynamics in this part of the world. But while sectarian dynamics do play a role in the politics of the Middle East, the real picture is far more complex. The conclusions regarding Syria that we are being presented with today arise from the myopic and reductionist sectarian lens. There’s nothing inevitable about the sectarian logic prevailing.

Take this comment by Gary C. Gambill for example, in which he is arguing for a ‘strategic non-intervention’ in Syria. Here’s his characterisation of the situation: