Shadi Hamid wrote an interesting article about Egyptian presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh in FP, 'A Man For All Seasons', arguing that Aboul Fotouh is a 'political chameleon' but may have not enough real support to win the elections. He also predicted problems for an Aboul Foutouh administration because of his highly eclectic support base:
'But just as the high hopes of the Obama campaign were dashed by the
political compromises inherent in governing, an Aboul Fotouh administration may
find it difficult to transcend the basic realities of Egyptian political life.
If he wins, his supporters will soon find that the divisions between Egypt's
feuding political currents do not dissipate quickly, if at all.'
Hamid's article echoes my thoughts on Aboul Fotouh's chances of successfully leading Egypt, in my column in Al-Akhbar earlier this week:
'Aboul Fotouh has spread himself so thin in trying to gain the support of a
broad spectrum, from liberals to Salafis, that it is hard to see how he
can satisfy them all if elected. His relationship with the MB might
change once in power, of course, but it’s hard to see how he would
reconcile this with his campaign tactics. The divergence in his support
base will translate into little agreement over any serious policy
initiatives, seriously weakening his ability to reform.'
I found the comparison with Obama's campaign particularly useful, given the wide gap between the electoral aspirations and Obama's performance in office.